Sunday, February 12, 2006

Iran's Nuke History

The Telegraph has a basic history of Iran's movement to becoming a nuclear power.

1987: Iran opens contacts with Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan

This is during the Reagan administration, it's cause for concern, but there was nothing the US could have done at this point.

2001: Teheran clandestinely buys from Ukraine 12 X-55 cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons 1,900 miles.

Iran doesn't have nuclear capability at this point, and 12 missiles is not enough for major concern.

2002: Iranian exile group claims the regime has run an 18-year nuclear programme

Eighteen years? That would be 1984. Did Iran have clandestine meetings with Pakistan before '87?, if not, then Russia and/or China would've been involved. 1984 would've been before Glasgnost, the Soviets may have been desperate for funds to catch up with Reagan's military build up. Plus, Russia has always been aligned with nations opposed to Israel.

2003: IAEA confirms programme but says no evidence of making nuclear arms.

Nuclear power first, then arms, this report doesn't help at all.

June 2004: Iranian citizen offers a stolen laptop to foreign intelligence as evidence of a secret nuclear weapons programme. It contains drawings depicting modifications to Shahab-3 ballistic missiles and plans for a second uranium conversion facility.

Combine this story with the 2001 purchase of the 12 missiles and the dots seem to be forming a deadly picture.

November 2004: Iran says it has suspended uranium enrichment and related activities. Talks begin with Britain, France and Germany.

Well, if Tehran admits they have military intentions, then guess what happens to their uranium enrichment program? Meanwhile, the US is making plans
for taking out Iran's nuclear facilities. There would be no reason for making these plans if the US thought there were no military intentions.

June 2005: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard veteran, elected President of Iran.

One of the Hostage takers during the Carter ('79) years. Not a nice guy.

August 2005: Iran announces it has resumed uranium conversion at Isfahan in breach of November 2004 accord.

It is doubtful that they ever stopped. Otherwise, why start up again?
What has changed in just a year? Let's not forget that Iran has huge oil reserves and it's need for peaceful nuclear power superfluous.

Sept 2005: Mr Ahmadinejad defends Iran's right to nuclear technology.

He also screams that Israel needs to be destroyed. Repeatedly. Iran is one of the principal funders of world wide terrorism. Gamaa Islamiya, Hamas, Hezbollah, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, al-Jihad and Ahmad Jigril are among the groups that Tehran is known to have funded.

November 2005: European Union accuses Iran of holding documents solely for use in producing nuclear arms, and supports American calls for referral to UN Security Council.

We can count on the UN and the EU to do nothing. Diplomatic heavywieghts Russia, France and Germany all have deep economic ties to Iran.

January 2006: Iran removes IAEA seals at Natanz and resumes research on uranium enrichment. Satellite photographs in the Sunday Telegraph show secret building project at Natanz and clear similarities to Pakistan's militarised nuclear sites. Iran admits receiving documents about making nuclear warheads from Khan network but says it has not used them. Iran successfully tests adapted Shahab-3 missiles that could carry a nuclear warhead to Israel. IAEA confirms connection between military and "civilian" programme.

Who to believe, Iran or the IAEA?

February 2006: IAEA votes to report Iran to UN Security Council. Iran says it will resume full-scale uranium enrichment at Natanz and end all snap inspections.

About 19 years (at least) behind the times. That's about right for these international watchdogs, but at least there is an acknowledgement of a problem.
As far as the inspections go, snap inspections are the only ones of any use. These tinhorn dictators just love to monkey around with international law, playing nuclear peek-a-boo.

5 Comments:

Blogger American Crusader said...

It's obvious what Iran's intentions are. I have to disagree with one point you made..12 missiles with a range of 1900 mi. is definitely something to be concerned with. Don't forget that each missile might hold multiple warheads. So if each missile held five warheads than that would be a toll of 60 Hiroshimas at one time. In some of Russia's latest missiles, they have the capacity of carrying at least 10 warheads at one time. All of our nuclear submarines carry multiple warheads on their missiles. Same with most of our land-based missiles also.

February 13, 2006  
Blogger kevin said...

AC,
Oh I'm conserned with the missles all right, but following the time line meant the missles arrived before neclear technology.

February 13, 2006  
Blogger Iran Watch said...

Iran already knows the script. They know that they can lie and get away with it at the UN for eternity. Even if they do implement sanctions, they know that bribery (oil for food scam) will buy them even more time. I just hope the world reacts before Iran becomes nuclear. In the end it will be left to America, Australia, Britain, Israel and maybe a few other faithful allies. Everybody else will sit back and criticize those who have the courage to intervene while secretly they will be thanking God that somebody did something.

February 13, 2006  
Blogger WomanHonorThyself said...

Agreeing with IW here , Kevin..we may not have the luxury of the waiting game this time...

February 13, 2006  
Blogger kevin said...

IW & WHT,
You get no aguement from me on the urgency of the situation. The interesting point of the timeline is it shows how long this has been building. If a Nuclear cloud appears, our leaders will have no further than the mirror to find blame.

February 13, 2006  

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