Is Russia’s Future Islamic?

hat tip; Strategy Page

Those who a know little geography know that southern Russia borders are near several Islamic states, Kazakhstan’s population is 50 % Muslim, Azerbaijan is 93% Muslim. Russia itself has an estimated 21 million Muslims. Although this is only 15% of the total Russian population, Russia’s long term trend of low birth rates and short life expectancy could reduce Russia’s population by a full third by 2050. In other words, this would leave Russia with 100,000,000 people in 44 years.

Muslim Russians give birth at a rate nearly triple to their non-Muslim countrymen. All these facts and trends lead to a possible Muslim majority in Russia by 2050. The birth rate is of such concern for the government that financial incentives have been offered to families to encourage more children. It’s not working, the downward trend of births has continued since before the end of the cold war. Non-Muslin Russians continue to average less than 2 children per family.

Russia’s Muslim population has grown 40% since 1989 due to births, immigration and conversion. In that same time period the number of mosques has grown from 1,000 to 8,000. To make matters worse, the sluggish economy has made small families a tradition. The climate and 70 years of communism have stunted economic growth and instilled a defeatist attitude among her people.

The caliphate may have it’s eyes cast far northward for the first time, pining for the still large and dangerous nuclear arsenal in Moscow’s control. A lot can happen in 40 years, and Russia is no stranger to radical change. Will the Motherland hold fast to her traditions? Or will she slowly sink into a Islamic theocracy? The residents of Beslan know full well the will of Islam, where the local middle school was held hostage by Muslim terrorists seeking a Chechynan independent state. The result was 326 killed, 727 wounded.


""“How to perceive Islam after Beslan?”, an article published on September 15 in the Moscow daily Izvestia, deacon Kuraev writes: “What happened in Beslan is not just a crime. It was a religious crime. It was ritual murder, the murder of children with prayers in the background. The terrorists killed in the name of their faith. They killed people shouting Allah Akbar and sacrificed innocent children on the altar of their religious ideas.”

Kuraev goes further: “They were not just gangsters who killed. They were people of one faith who killed Christians in the name of their creed.” One episode, he believes, makes this point clear. Sacha, a 13-year-old boy, was among the children taken hostage in the school. He wore a cross around his neck. When one of the terrorist saw it, the man turned his gun towards the boy and shouted: “Pray!” Sacha reacted by shouting “Christ is risen!” and escaped through a window.""

Russians would be well advised to take control of this situation while they are still in control.